ITC Warns of Looming Fertiliser Crisis Threatening Food Security in Developing Economies

Concerns are mounting over global food security as supply disruptions in the fertiliser market begin to ripple across developing economies, raising fears of reduced agricultural output and rising food prices. The International Trade Centre (ITC) has flagged fertiliser shortages as a more immediate and pressing risk than surging energy costs, warning that ongoing geopolitical tensions could have far-reaching consequences for food systems, particularly in import-dependent regions. Speaking on the development, Pamela Coke-Hamilton stressed that fertiliser availability remains central to agricultural productivity and economic stability. She noted that any sustained disruption in supply could directly undermine food production, especially in countries already vulnerable to supply shocks. Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Tighten Supply At the heart of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route responsible for transporting roughly one-third of the world’s urea fertiliser. Ongoing tensions involving Iran and the United States have led to blockades and shipping disruptions, significantly constraining fertiliser flows during a key agricultural period. The United Nations has indicated that diplomatic efforts are ongoing to restore safe passage through the waterway, but uncertainty remains over how quickly normal supply chains can resume. Import-Dependent Nations Face Higher Risk The ITC highlighted that several countries across Africa and Asia are particularly exposed due to their reliance on fertiliser imports from Gulf producers. Among the most vulnerable are Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. In these markets, the challenge is not just supply delays but the risk of permanently reduced yields. With narrow planting windows and heavy reliance on seasonal rainfall, farmers may be forced to use less fertiliser, directly impacting crop output. Rising Risk of Food Insecurity Analysts warn that declining fertiliser use could trigger a chain reaction—lower harvests, higher food prices, and increased vulnerability to shortages. Regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and...