XAUUSD: High-Probability CHOCH at the $4,700 Demand Zone

Market sentiment for XAU/USD heading into Monday, May 11, 2026, is leaning bullish but remains sensitive to key macroeconomic data and geopolitical headlines. Technical Setup & Signals Based on recent price action (closing around $4,721 – $4,750), here are the prevailing technical signals for Monday: Bullish Bias: Most indicators suggest an upside potential toward the $4,880 range. The daily chart shows a “Morning Star” pattern and a “Golden Cross” on shorter timeframes (5/10-week MAs), which typically signals a trend reversal to the upside. Key Resistance Levels: $4,760: Immediate barrier; a break above this with high volume could trigger an expansion toward higher targets. $4,821 – $4,881: Secondary resistance zones. $5,052: Long-term bullish target for the week if momentum sustains. Key Support Levels: $4,700 – $4,703: This is the primary psychological and technical support. $4,640 – $4,650: A deeper liquidity pocket where buyers are expected to step in if a pullback occurs. $4,576: Major support; a break below this would invalidate the current bullish structure Fundamental Drivers CPI & PPI Data: The market is bracing for US April Inflation data (CPI and PPI) later this week. Expectations of easing inflation are currently supporting gold as it fuels hopes for interest rate cuts Geopolitics: Tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty regarding a US-Iran peace deal are providing a safe-haven bid for gold, while any breakthrough in peace talks could lead to a sudden sharp correction (pullback). DXY (US Dollar Index): The dollar has shown signs of softening, which inversely benefits gold prices. Possible Scenarios for Monday The Bullish Breakout: If price holds above $4,725 and breaks $4,760, look for a run toward $4,820. The Sweep & Rebound: A common Monday move involves a “stop hunt” or sweep of the $4,700 support before the actual bullish expansion begins. The Correction: If headlines emerge regarding a Middle East ceasefire or stronger-than-expected US economic sentiment, gold may drop to test the $4,640 zone. Note: As you use Smart Money Concepts (SMC), watch for a Change of Character (CHOCH) on lower timeframes (M15/H1) around the $4,700 support zone for a high-probability entry.