Holding SpaceX Since The IPO? Why I’d Use The Strength To Sell

Walter Cicchetti/Shutterstock.com The SpaceX IPO lockup structure is unlike anything investors have seen before and the debut of SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX ) that we saw on June 12 made history for the whole market. The price for the share was $135 and it is officially the biggest IPO in history, raising around $75 billion and the valuation of the company was ~$1.8 trillion and right now market cap has crossed $2.9 trillion (June 16th). Shares closed Day One up 19% at $161.11 and the ATH was $225.64. For investors thinking beyond the first weeks of a bullish mood, it is very important to separate 3 things: What happened on the first day What’s going to happen in 6 months What this IPO tells us about the broader market coming in 2027 SpaceX stock price My point is that this is likely to go higher in the short term, as the index inclusion and oversubscription can fuel the whole company. But across the 2026 mega-IPO wave (especially in AI sector), looks like the market absorbing a huge amount of retail liquidity at the worst possible time for us. I’m bearish on the 12-18 month horizon, but have a specific window from late 2026 till early 2027 when I expect the setup to change into the correction phase. There is No Surprise with the Price Action The SpaceX IPO lockup aside, the deal was oversubscribed with around 2x, with ~$150 billion in orders and $75 billion in available shares, against a float of approximately 4%. The 19% pump on a 4% float with a big oversubscription is the supply and demand that we have an the artificially made asset. With a small amount of shares available in the market compared to demand, almost any price change on the first day of trading has more to do with positioning than fundamentals. SpaceX was added to MSCI World and MSCI ACWI the day after listing. That’s an unusually fast inclusion. If it qualifies for fast-track Nasdaq-100 inclusion under the new rules (allowing inclusion in 15 trading days instead of three months), passive funds may be forced to invest without looking into valuation. None of this tells you anything about whether SpaceX is worth $1.8 trillion, $2.5 trillion, or $800 billion. This information tells you that the float is tiny and the buyers could be mechanical. In my opinion, this is a setup for continued upward move in the short term and a setup for the correction when this mechanical bid will disappear or reverse. SpaceX IPO Lockup Calendar: What Most Investors Miss SpaceX IPO structure gets really unusual in this case and I think that most investors have not done their homework on this exact point. Most IPOs use a flat 180-day lockup. SpaceX is different. Insiders can sell up to 20% of their holdings on the second full trading day after Q2 2026 earnings are published — not on the earnings date itself. SpaceX Is expected to report Q2 earnings on September 2. A separate 10% tranche unlocks if SPCX closes at least 30% above its $135 IPO price — above $175.50 — for at least five of the ten trading sessions at that point. Trading above that level today does not trigger it. The standard 180-day lockup then expires around mid-December 2026. Elon and major shareholders stay locked until ~June 2027, with early release triggers tied directly to stock performance. What History Says About SpaceX IPO Lockup Expirations The history of this pattern does not make me … Full story available on Benzinga.com