Falling Wafer Prices Hands Indian Cell Makers a Margin Windfall — And a Dilemma

The steady grind lower in Chinese wafer prices resumed last week, and few markets have more riding on the trend than India’s. According to the latest OPIS Global Solar Markets Report, free-on-board China prices for M10 wafers slipped to $0.130 per piece, with 210R wafers at $0.141 per piece — weekly declines of 0.76% and 1.40% respectively. Market participants attribute the fall to a familiar cocktail: abundant supply, weakening downstream demand and softening polysilicon prices. Upstream, the picture is no brighter for Chinese producers. Data from the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association shows n-type recharge polysilicon averaging RMB 32,700 per tonne in early July, with granular silicon at RMB 32,000 — both at or below the cash costs of most manufacturers. With idled lines restarting during the hydropower-rich rainy season, monthly output is expected to cross 100,000 tonnes against demand of roughly 91,000 tonnes, adding to an inventory mountain already estimated at over 500,000 tonnes. Most Chinese cell producers, barring one leading player, have cut operating rates since the start of July. The India Arbitrage For Indian manufacturers, the timing is almost poetic. Since June 1, ALMM List-II has mandated domestically produced solar cells for covered projects, handing Indian cell makers a protected market at precisely the moment their principal input — imported Chinese wafers — keeps getting cheaper. The spread between a falling global wafer price and a policy-supported domestic cell price is the widest structural margin opportunity the industry has seen, even after accounting for the leeway allowed by the government till December 2026. The beneficiaries are lining up. Avaada Electro operationalised the first 3 GW phase of its 6 GW TOPCon cell facility in Nagpur just last week. Emmvee Photovoltaic’s record Q1 FY27 results — PAT up 103% with cell utilisation at...