From the 12-Day War to the 40-Day War: The winner is apparent, as is the loser

İbrahim Varlı Israel and the US ’s efforts to reshape the Middle East have centred on Iran . The path to Iran ran through Palestine, Lebanon, Syria , Libya and Iraq . These countries were areas that needed to be cleared before the invasion of Iran could take place. This strategy is based on the “octopus doctrine” formulated in 2018 by Naftali Bennett, then Israel’s Defence Minister. According to the doctrine, the head of the “octopus” should be targeted rather than its tentacles in the region. To do this, the tentacles must be severed. And so it was. The dismantling of Hamas, Hezbollah and Damascus was the result of this strategy, implemented step by step. Once the conditions were in place, the focus finally turned to Iran. 7 WARS TO BE FOUGHT IN 5 YEARS Professor Jeffrey Sachs, an adviser to the UN Secretary-General, would describe at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum how Netanyahu and the US had set out to shape the Middle East for Israel as follows: “ This programme has a name: Operation Timber Sycamore. Syria is one of the six wars provoked by Israel ; Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan. And then there is Yemen. General Wesley Clark provided the Pentagon with a list of seven wars to be instigated over five years in 2011 . Of these, only one, the Iran-US war which Israel desperately wanted has not yet been instigated . None of these wars were inevitable; they were chosen.” ‘THE ONLY WAR THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN’ HAS HAPPENED! The war that Sachs described as the “ only war that did not happen ” broke out on 13 June 2025 . With US support, Israel launched an operation named “Rising Lion” and declared war on Iran . The Netanyahu administration’s pretext for the attack was Iran’s nuclear programme. 13 JUNE 2025: THE FIRST IRAN WAR The First Iran War , which lasted 12 days, came to an end on 24 June 2025. Although Iran suffered heavy blows, it had demonstrated its resistance to the “ Epstein Alliance ”. Imperialist-Zionist barbarism had met its limits whilst attempting to destroy Tehran. This was the first round of the clash between Israel-US and Iran. Trump’s military build-up, which saw him deploying troops to the Middle East for eight months, was a harbinger of the second war. And so it proved. THE SECOND ACT OF THE WAR BEGAN ON 28 FEBRUARY Israel and the US opened the second act of the 12-Day War eight months later, on 28 February 2026 . Whilst negotiations between Washington and Tehran were ongoing, Israel and the US struck Iran. The attacks, dubbed the “Epic Fury” Operation , spread across the entire region. From 2 March onwards, Israel also declared war on Lebanon. Iran, meanwhile, retaliated against US military bases in Kuwait, Iraqi Kurdistan, Jordan, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, alongside Israel. The Second Iran War, which lasted 40 days , saw a ceasefire declared as of 8 April. Although Iran suffered heavy losses and its economic and military infrastructure was crippled, it displayed unprecedented resilience. Tehran’s move in the Strait of Hormuz took Trump down . The “Epstein alliance” was forced to accept the ceasefire, and moreover, had to accept Iran’s list of 10 conditions. The US and Israel had expectations of a swift victory in both wars against Iran . However, that did not happen. Even Trump’s imperialist allies failed to come to the rescue . Neither Germany, France, nor Britain, nor the NATO military alliance, wanted to be complicit in this crime. They were aware of the consequences that might befall them. THEY COULDN’T CRUSH IRAN IN THE FIRST TWO ROUNDS, AND THERE WILL BE A THIRD! The imperialist-Zionist accomplices, despite declaring victory in the Second Iran War which they launched , emerged with an “undeclared”defeat. Iran, having suffered heavy blows, demonstrated that imperialism is not invincible. Despite their massive military capabilities, the attacks by the US and Israel failed to bring Tehran to its knees . Even the American press and officials agree that what has happened is a defeat for Trump . However, the imperialists and Zionists will not stop . A strategy spread out over time is at play. Iran is now an open battlefield . They will not give up on weakening Iran by striking it and destabilising it. It is difficult to say that this war has ended here. They will pounce on Iran again at the first opportunity. 13–24 June The 12-Day War was the first round, 28 February–8 April The 40-Day War was the second. In the long-term strategy of Israel and the US, there will inevitably be a third phase as well. Note: This article is translated from the original article titled 12 Gün Savaşı’ndan 40 Gün Savaşı’na: Kazanan da belli kaybeden de, published in BirGün newspaper on April 10, 2026.