Sudan Crisis Situation Analysis (Period: 11/05/26 – 17/05/26)

Country: Sudan Source: Data Friendly Space Please refer to the attached file. Sudan is facing one of the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crises as the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023, enters its fourth year in 2026. The conflict has triggered widespread civilian suffering, economic collapse, mass displacement, and severe regional instability, with humanitarian conditions continuing to deteriorate across much of the country. An estimated 19.5 million people are currently experiencing acute food insecurity, making Sudan the world’s largest hunger crisis. Famine conditions have been confirmed in el-Fasher (North Darfur) and Kadugli (South Kordofan), while numerous areas across Darfur and Kordofan remain at high risk of famine amid ongoing conflict, siege tactics, disrupted markets, and severe restrictions on humanitarian access. Children continue to bear a disproportionate burden of the crisis, with millions exposed to acute malnutrition, disease outbreaks, and heightened mortality risks. Fatality estimates remain highly contested due to limited humanitarian access, communication blackouts, and verification constraints. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded nearly 30,000 reported deaths by late 2024, while several independent investigations and international media estimates suggest the true death toll may exceed 150,000 people. Civilians continue to face widespread violence, including indiscriminate shelling, aerial bombardments, drone attacks, and ethnically targeted killings, particularly in Darfur and parts of Kordofan. Sudan’s health system remains severely degraded, especially in active conflict zones where many facilities are non-operational or functioning only partially. Between 2024 and early 2026, Sudan experienced a nationwide cholera outbreak that spread across all 18 states, infecting more than 124,000 people and causing over 3,500 deaths before authorities declared the outbreak contained in March 2026. However, overcrowded displacement sites, poor sanitation conditions, and limited healthcare access continue to create significant risks of renewed outbreaks of cholera and other communicable diseases. Displacement continues to rise at an unprecedented scale. More than 14 million people have been displaced since the start of the conflict, including approximately 9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and more than 4 million refugees who have fled to neighboring countries, making Sudan the world’s largest displacement crisis. At the same time, limited returns to parts of Khartoum and Al Jazirah have increased since early 2026 as frontlines shifted, although returnees continue to face devastated infrastructure, insecurity, limited public services, and severe livelihood shortages. Militarily, the conflict has continued to expand and fragment since late 2025. The RSF has expanded its territorial influence across much of Darfur and intensified offensives in Kordofan, while the SAF has maintained control over key eastern and northern urban centers. Fighting around Kadugli, Dilling, and other strategic locations in Kordofan has trapped large civilian populations under increasingly dire humanitarian conditions. The conflict has also seen a growing use of drones, aerial strikes, and long-range attacks targeting civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, markets, and displacement sites. In December 2025, a drone strike on a kindergarten and hospital in Kalogi reportedly killed at least 114 people, including dozens of children, while separate attacks on peacekeeping personnel highlighted the increasing risks faced by humanitarian actors and civilians alike. Ethnic violence and sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) continue to escalate, particularly in Darfur. Human rights organizations and women-led monitoring networks have documented widespread abuses, including conflict-related sexual violence, forced displacement, arbitrary detention, and attacks targeting ethnic communities. Despite sustained diplomatic pressure, including sanctions imposed by the United States and United Kingdom on RSF leaders and affiliated financial networks, regional and international mediation initiatives have thus far failed to secure a durable ceasefire or political settlement. The conflict is increasingly destabilizing neighboring countries through refugee flows, cross-border insecurity, arms trafficking, and growing pressure on already fragile humanitarian systems across the region. Meanwhile, humanitarian operations remain critically underfunded. The World Food Programme (WFP) warned in 2026 that severe funding shortfalls threaten additional ration cuts and disruptions to emergency food assistance pipelines, placing millions at further risk of hunger and malnutrition. As of mid-2026, Sudan remains trapped in a protracted and increasingly fragmented conflict characterized by territorial fragmentation, widespread civilian targeting, deepening food insecurity, and severe humanitarian access constraints. Without urgent, coordinated, and sustained international engagement—including increased humanitarian financing, civilian protection measures, and renewed diplomatic efforts toward a negotiated settlement—the crisis is likely to continue worsening, with profound implications for Sudan and the wider region.